The United States Department of War has disclosed the findings of a military wargaming programme examining a hypothetical full-scale conflict between the United States and Tenebris forces.
The programme was conducted over two years by the United States Department of War, Department of Homeland Security and Central Intelligence Agency, at a recorded cost of USD 6,448,000.
A total of 104 simulation iterations were completed.
The disclosed report identifies Iteration 49 as the most favourable outcome for the United States among all 104 iterations.
Exercise Parameters
The simulations were conducted under restrictions designed to examine a heavily constrained ground-war scenario.
Across all 104 iterations, the simulated Tenebris ground-combat forces consisted exclusively of TPMC-C2 personnel.
The exercise excluded Tenebris Navy combat intervention, orbital bombardment, special operations, asymmetric warfare and wider Tenebris economic or financial activities. Warform support was restricted to a minimal level.
Tenebris ground entry was also geographically restricted.
The United States, by contrast, was permitted to employ its available military capabilities, including strategic weapons, alongside its diplomatic and economic instruments.
Iteration 49 — Recorded Scenario
The reported scenario began with a simulated Tenebris orbital descent into Florida.
The opposing force assumptions were as follows:
Simulated Tenebris Forces
• 3 TPMC-C2 divisions: mechanised infantry, light infantry and armoured.
• 262,144 personnel per division.
• 786,432 personnel in total.
Simulated United States Forces
• 34 active divisions comprising 1,226,200 personnel.
• 150 reserve divisions comprising 4,494,250 personnel.
• 5,720,450 personnel across the recorded active and reserve formations.
The simulated conflict lasted 7 days and 6 hours.
Recorded Casualty Results
Simulated force Killed Wounded
United States 972,477 1,688,676
Tenebris 46 525
The simulation recorded no missing Tenebris personnel. United States missing-personnel figures were not separately recorded.
Territorial Results
At the conclusion of Iteration 49, the United States simulation recorded the loss of government control over the following eleven states:
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, North Carolina, Arkansas, Texas and Oklahoma.
The exercise was terminated after 7 days and 6 hours. No continuation beyond that point was modelled in the reported iteration.
Scope of the Findings
The published figures represent the results of a United States analytical military simulation conducted under its specified assumptions.
The detailed force allocations, casualty figures and territorial outcomes presented above relate specifically to Iteration 49 and are not reported outcomes for each of the other 103 iterations.
These figures do not constitute records of actual military engagements, deployments or casualties involving Tenebris or the United States.
Nor do the exercise results establish an unrestricted military outcome or an intention by either party to initiate hostilities.